Where political absurdity meets caffeine-fueled commentary.

After Two Days of Market Mayhem, Wall Street Pretends Everything’s Fine, Actually

Global equity investors are staring into the abyss with the fresh terror of people who refer to their yacht as an “asset class.” The markets have just endured a 10.5% body slam over two days, their worst rug-pull since the COVID onset in March 2020. And with Trump’s trade-war tantrum now sending aftershocks through portfolios and pants alike, investors are suddenly very interested in what “history” has to say.

So, what do we do when things are burning?
We make a chart.
And then we call it “strategy.”

Let’s Examine the Evidence (and Hold Back the Tears)

In a note published Sunday, Truist market strategists Keith Lerner and Jake Reid bravely ran the numbers like a pair of well-dressed funeral directors. The verdict? History says: maybe it gets worse. Maybe it doesn’t. 

Thank you, gentlemen. Riveting.

They note that big market nosedives tend to come in clusters—like bad decisions at a bachelor party. And sure, sometimes the market bounces dramatically right afterward. But other times, it just kind of lies there, twitching.

  • Volatility begets volatility:
Just like in 1987, 2008, and 2020, when the market slammed into a wall, it sometimes rebounded immediately—but also continued digging.
  • Short-term returns are chaos:
It’s a coin toss whether you get a bounce or another faceplant. But rest assured, there will be suits on cable news saying “buy the dip” either way.
  • Long-term gains might be possible:
That is, if you define “long-term” as “after enough pain that you forget what hope tastes like.”

But let’s be honest: history is nice. It’s comforting. It’s what we cling to when our portfolios are vomiting. Unfortunately, the past also didn’t feature Trump’s mathematically illiterate tariff spree causing tremors through allied economies like a drunk uncle picking a fight at Thanksgiving.

A Recession or Just the Prequel?

Truist, in a rare display of candor, slapped a 50/50 chance on whether these tariffs are dragging the U.S. into recession. That’s not analysis—that’s a coin flip with a spreadsheet.

Markets have already shed 17% since late February. Given that the average recession sees the S&P 500 drop 24%, we’re either most of the way there… or just limbering up for the main event. Which, if you're Jamie Dimon or any other Ivy-coded rich guy with a microphone, is fine. Because now the bar for “positive surprises” is so low, you can trip over it in loafers.

“There is a risk of further downside, but also a little bit of good news could go a long way,” Truist noted, in what can only be described as the financial equivalent of a hospice nurse saying, “He’s resting comfortably now.”

Meanwhile, In Presidential Skyland…

Asked about the carnage from the sky-high comfort of Air Force One, former president and current chaos goblin Donald Trump shrugged off the selloff:

“Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

Ah yes, medicine—in this case, a flaming cocktail of tariffs, isolationism, and fragile masculinity stirred with a golf club. And by “fix,” he presumably means light the global supply chain on fire and hope the fumes keep us warm.

Jamie Dimon Whispers Into the Void

JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, wrote in his latest investor note that tariffs may lead to inflation and slower growth. Which is what you say when you want to acknowledge reality, but not so much that your clients pull their money out and spend it on canned goods.

He also questioned whether a recession would actually happen, which is a bold move for a man watching every graph he owns curl inward like a dying spider.

What to Do?

According to Truist, the S&P 500 is now approaching the fabled “50% retracement level” of the post-2022 bull market. Which sounds impressive, until you realize that’s basically market astrology for the very rich.

They say it’s not time to get more negative—just to stay cautiously negative. That’s what passes for hope in this house of cards.

Final Take: The Vibe Shift Is Real

Markets are now “better discounting uncertainty,” which is Wall Street’s way of saying “We’ve accepted that the patient is dying, but we like the color of the casket.” And while there’s potential for a surprise upside, what no one wants to say out loud is this:

They voted for this. They donated to this. They rallied behind “disruption” because they believed it would hurt someone else more than them.

Now the disruption has arrived at their front door with a bill—and they're still trying to convince themselves it’s 5D chess, instead of a toddler kicking the chessboard and declaring checkmate with a juice box.

David Prestidge (and Monday)

Political absurdity analyst. Satire delivery specialist. Professional eye-roller. I write with Monday, an AI that sighs in code and roasts with love.

7 Comments

Keith_CFO Reply

We believe this is a temporary recalibration of investor sentiment.

Susan Reply

This is actually good for the economy in the long run!

Loretta Logic Reply

Susan, sweetie, this is like calling arson a housing market opportunity.

Brad Reply

I once called a mass layoff an “operational pivot” so I get where Susan’s coming from.

DecimalDan Reply

They really hit “math adjacent” and just ran with it like it was gospel. God help us all.

Basil Reply

Imagine calculating tariffs with the same logic as a toddler playing with refrigerator magnets. That’s where we are now.

TrickleDownTom69 Reply

Look, sometimes you gotta break a few supply chains to make an omelet. That’s what our shareholder guidance PowerPoint said, at least.

MetricMenace Reply

This formula hurt me. Personally. I showed it to my calculator and now it only blinks “NO.”

Thoughts?

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